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Jul 27, 2026 - World

On July 6, political scientist Robert Pape made an ominous prediction that an "August energy shock" could send global oil prices skyrocketing, but on Monday, a recent development led him to double down and forecast an even bigger shock to come.Last week, the Yemeni military organization the Houthis implemented a new maritime blockade on Saudi Arabian energy exports through the Red Sea, and over the weekend, Saudi Arabia launched attacks against the Houthis after its oil tankers came under fire.“After Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers, over 40% of Saudi oil bypassing Hormuz via the Red Sea is not hitting the global market. More attacks could reduce this further,” Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago, wrote in an analysis published Monday on his Substack. “By opening an active Red Sea front through its regional partners while keeping Hormuz closed, Iran [is] no longer presenting Washington with one maritime challenge. It is creating a two-front war problem in strategically linked theaters that must be managed at the same time.”Pape predicted as far back as June 15 that Iran was well positioned to “exploit the oil inventory clock” and weaponize rising oil prices to its advantage. He reiterated that analysis on July 6 and more explicitly predicted that an “energy shock” could hit global markets in August.Energy prices have, in fact, increased significantly since Pape’s initial prediction. With the United States having ramped up attacks on Iran starting earlier this month, gas prices have since soared in the United States to an average of $4.10 a gallon as of Friday, and are “poised to climb higher,” per NBC News.“In my July 6 briefing, I warned that the earlier prediction was on track,” Pape wrote. “The developments of the past week reinforce that strategic logic and likely make the coming shock more severe.”

Jul 27, 2026 - World

President Donald Trump’s complaints about coverage of his second term from the White House Correspondents’ Dinner last Friday were dismantled on Monday morning.On MS NOW’s “Morning Joe,” co-host Joe Scarborough laid reports about the White House chaos at the feet of Trump, who insisted on Friday that those reports are all “fake news.”“The Iran war, it keeps grinding on and on and on, a war of choice, and as it grinds on, Americans' approval of it collapses by the day,” he stated. “So Friday night, at an event that should have never been held, the president tells a room of reporters not to believe, quote, ‘fake news’ about how that war is going.”“Well, that fake news actually comes from calls inside the house, from the administration, from people who know it was a mistake to go in and there's no good way to get out. So you be the judge of that,“ he added.“But you don't have to judge higher costs, affordability, the president mocking affordability, like with your grocery bill, food prices are now rising at their sharpest pace in 50 years,” he elaborated. “You can read that in the Associated Press. You can read that in a variety of news reports this weekend — but you don't have to. All you have to do is look at your bill. Food at home costs up 33 percent since 2019, against just 6.4 percent growth in the seven years before that. And ground beef is now $6.82 a pound, up 79 percent. Gas prices? They just keep spiraling up, the price of oil spiraling up and war, it drives up fuel and fertilizer prices, and those prices drive up food.”“And it is food that's eating more of your paycheck than at any time since Gerald Ford was president of the United States,” he continued. “So against this backdrop, how did the president spend that same Friday night, not reassuring Americans on the war, not reassuring Americans on the cost of beef or on the cost of gas? No, he spent an hour on the physical appearance of the press corps confronting him, even telling CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on camera that she's attractive but never smiles and seemed to compare her to a trans influencer.” - YouTube youtu.be

Jul 27, 2026 - World

White House officials and insiders are growing increasingly worried that President Donald Trump may soon move forward with an idea they fear could “plunge the U.S. and global economy off a steep cliff,” Zeteo reported Sunday, and one that could be executed “as soon as within the coming days.”Trump’s idea, as he told Axios last week, was to stage a “massive attack” on Iran and reignite the conflict in a bid to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table on terms more favorable to Washington. However, “practically everyone in Trump’s inner circle” believes Trump’s plan is doomed to fail, Zeteo reported after speaking with multiple White House insiders.“Terrible f------ idea,” one White House adviser told Zeteo regarding their thoughts on Trump’s plan, speaking on the condition of anonymity.“Trump has no f------ way out,” a senior administration official told Zeteo, also speaking on the condition of anonymity.A third White House official, also speaking anonymously, told Zeteo there was "almost no scenario where Americans don't die" if Trump moves forward. And yet, despite the apparent consensus among Trump’s inner circle that further escalation would be unwise, one major "problem” persisted.“[The vast majority of Trump’s most senior advisers are] too scared to just say it to the president,” a U.S. official told Zeteo, also under the condition of anonymity. “No one is just telling Trump this won’t work… They soft-sell it or tone it down when they talk to the president about this, when what they all should be doing is telling him that none of this is going to work and it will destroy everything he’s worked for.”The White House insiders’ fears were further supported by recent reporting from The New York Times about a secret meeting on Friday between Trump and his top advisers, during which the majority of those close to Trump advised against intensifying attacks on Iran.

Jul 27, 2026 - World

The surprise death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has opened the door for someone new to whisper in President Donald Trump's ear and possibly alter the arc of the war with Iran.Benjamin Netanyahu is seizing the moment, according to a report from Politico. The Israeli Prime Minister, long frustrated by increasingly limited White House access, has finally secured an invitation following Graham's funeral — a visit months in the making.Netanyahu has been "angling" for an Oval Office since at least April, according to sources familiar with the diplomatic maneuvering. Graham's death provided the opening Netanyahu needed."At first there was no meeting. They arranged it in the last couple of days," one insider told Politico, confirming that Netanyahu capitalized on the funeral to finalize arrangements that stalled for months.As Politico notes, Trump and Netanyahu haven't met "face-to-face" since February, just before the Iran war commenced — a conflict Netanyahu personally lobbied Trump to launch. Nearly five months have elapsed since that encounter.Netanyahu faces a precarious political position. He championed the Iranian military campaign, but the war has dragged far beyond initial projections. Trump predicted a four-to-five-week conflict, but the fighting continues with no resolution in sight.The White House visit allows Netanyahu to discuss escalation strategies with Trump, with Politico reporting, "Trump’s own staff are growing frustrated by the long odds of ending the fighting, and Trump has had harsh words for Netanyahu as the war has dragged on.""Bibi takes a risk coming to the White House. He might get pressed by President Trump with an ask, rather than the other way around," warned Elisa Ewers, a former senior Middle East official now at the Council on Foreign Relations.Netanyahu will likely face demands that Israel accept American policies it has previously resisted — positions on Lebanon, Gaza, and other regional matters where Washington and Jerusalem have diverged, she told Politico."The White House visit in itself is his get," Ewers noted, suggesting the mere invitation represents a victory for Netanyahu after months of diplomatic cold-shoulder treatment.

Jul 27, 2026 - World

Wind and record-breaking heat are fuelling the continent’s explosive fire season, with Spain and France among worst hitExplainer: what is a ‘fire cloud’, and how have they worsened wildfires in Europe?Europe wildfires live – latest updatesA combination of an unusually wet winter, very low rainfall since spring and repeated record-breaking summer heatwaves is likely to explain why wildfires have ignited, spread and resisted control so readily across France and Spain in recent days.About 90% of wildfires are started by human activity, typically igniting “fine fuels” such as vegetation grass, pine needles, litter and twigs. And recent weather has almost certainly made ignition far easier. Drought in western Europe has turned this vegetation – which normally dries after only a few hours of heat and low rainfall – into tinder. Continue reading...